Commerce chief: Yuan's depreciation "small and normal"

5th Round of China-U.S.

Strategic Economic Dialogue

Backgrounder: China-U.S. Strategic Economic

Dialogue

BEIJING, Dec. 4 (Chinese media) -- The recent depreciation

of China's currency against the U.S. dollar was normal and China won't rely on a

weaker yuan to boost exports, Commerce Minister Chen Deming said on Thursday.

"The recent small fluctuation of the yuan against the

dollar was completely normal. I'd call it the dollar strengthening, rather than

the yuan depreciating," Chen told reporters at the fifth China-U.S. Strategic

Economic Dialogue (SED).

China has taken a self-initiated, gradual and

controllable approach to exchange rate reform since it ended the peg of the yuan

in July 2005, and the principle has never changed, the minister said.

The yuan has since gained more than 20 percent versus

the U.S. dollar as a result of market forces, Chen told reporters.

The currency had been stable since mid-September,

when the financial crisis that originated in the United States worsened and

increasingly began to affect the world, he noted.

It will remain stable if there is no big change in

the international economic environment and all countries work together to

respond to the crisis, he said.

He also said there are no signs of capital flowing

out of China, which is still a good destination for foreign investment. Analysts

said a weaker yuan could trigger capital flight.

The yuan fell as low as 6.8845 per U.S. dollar on the

over-the-counter market on Thursday morning, declining by the 0.5 percent daily

limit. It is allowed to trade by up to 0.5 percent against the U.S. dollar on

either side of the central parity (reference) rate.

The depreciation this week sparked speculation that

China was shifting its exchange rate policy to allow the yuan to weaken to help

struggling exporters and save jobs.

"The current difficulty for exports is caused by

market shrinkage. I don't count on the yuan's depreciation to boost exports,"

Chen stated.

"We think it is too early to see the latest move as a

signal of a significant change in China's exchange rate policy," Tao Wang at UBS

Securities wrote in a note on Wednesday.

The reference rate has been kept stable despite the

fall by the daily limit on the over-the-counter market. Analysts said this

situation showed the central bank didn't want a big shift in the exchange rate

policy.

Wang warned the yuan's depreciation could run the

risk of leading to protectionist responses from China's major export markets and

a round of competitive devaluations in neighboring economies.

The yuan had for months remained steady against the

U.S. dollar until the recent retreat. But it has appreciated by about 10 percent

against the trade-weighted basket of currencies since August, as the U.S. dollar

strengthened significantly against other major currencies, Wang noted.

Tan Yaling, a research analyst with the Bank of

China, also believed the recent movement of the yuan was "normal and rational

"market behavior as the currency has gained 20 percent against the U.S. dollar

since July 2005.

The depreciation will "help remove some of the

market's 'one-way-bet' mentality. We had been expecting some modest yuan

weakness in the first half of 2009," Standard Chartered said in a note on

Wednesday.

Wang forecast the yuan's rate against to the U.S.

dollar would weaken to 7.0 by the end of 2008, but it could advance again to 6.8

at the end of 2009.

But if the U.S. dollar strengthened by more than 10

percent against the currencies of China's main trading partners, the yuan might

weaken by about 5 percent against the U.S. currency, she added.

Economist: China has "limited scope"

for yuan depreciation against dollar

BEIJING, Dec. 3 (Chinese media) -- China has "very limited scope"

to keep its currency, the yuan, depreciating against the U.S. dollar in the

coming year, UBS Securities said on Wednesday.

The yuan, or Renminbi (RMB), weakened to 6.8870 against

the U.S. dollar on the over-the-counter market on Tuesday, declining by the 0.5

percent daily limit for a second day. The RMB is allowed to trade by up to 0.5

percent against the greenback on either side of its central parity rate. Full story

Think tank: China economy to grow more

than 9% in 2009

BEIJING,

Dec. 2 (Chinese media) -- Chinese economy is forecast to grow by more than 9 percent

next year, according to an annual blue paper released by the Chinese Academy of

Social Science on Tuesday.

Despite the huge uncertainty in 2009, China could still

achieve a 9-percent growth as long as it unveils timely and suitable

macro-economic control measures to boost domestic demand, said the blue paper.

Full story

China to set strategy for 8% GDP

growth

BEIJING, Dec. 3 -- China's

top economic policy makers will meet next week to decide how to secure growth of

at least 8 percent, outpacing the World Bank's more pessimistic forecast,

government officials said Tuesday.

The annual Central Economic Work Conference, scheduled for

Monday through Wednesday, will tackle ways to implement the recently adopted

"expansive" fiscal policy and "moderately easy" monetary policy, officials

said. Full story

China planner offers details on 4 trln

yuan stimulus package



BEIJING, Nov. 14 (Chinese media) -- A senior

Chinese planning official told reporters here on Friday that the new 4 trillion

yuan (586 billion U.S. dollars) economic stimulus package includes 1.18 trillion

yuan from the central government through 2010.

Mu Hong, vice director of the National Development and

Reform Commission (NDRC), said the agency would add 100 billion yuan of new

investment during the fourth quarter. Full story

China outlines tasks for next year's

economic work

BEIJING, Nov. 28

(Chinese media) -- The Political Bureau of the Communist Party of China (CPC) Central

Committee convened a meeting here on Friday, analyzing and studying the economic

work of next year and setting out major tasks.

The meeting said that this year has been eventful and the

country has risen to many daunting challenges, including the global financial

crisis and domestic natural disasters. The economy has maintained a stable and

relatively fast growth and society has been stable, which are hard-won

achievements, it said. Full story